Election Prediction Project update

It seems like the general consensus so far is that the by-election in Guelph is Too Close To Call (TCTC), which is reflected in the project's own ranking that has yet to change.

The typical partisans for both the Liberals and Conservatives are posting, but they are being out-voted so far. Since the 28th of July the count is 10 TCTC, 5 Liberal and 4 Conservative.

In the absence of any polling, I suspect the prediction is going to remain this way until election day.

Liberals fear Don Valley West by-election will hurt their efforts in Guelph

Back in August I posted about John Godfrey delaying his resignation for an additional month to benefit the Liberals. By delaying his resignation, he allowed the Liberals to focus all their Ontario resources in Guelph. This theory was widely ridiculed by various Liberals.

Now that the Prime Minister has called the by-election for September 22nd in Don Valley West, we get a post claiming that Harper is being an "opportunist" by doing so. I guess it's not a surprise to find that Liberals want to have it both ways.

Harper’s calling of this by-election for Sept. 22 in Don Valley West (DVW) is no different. Of course it’s a fairly safe riding for the Liberals, but I think it’s clear why Harper has called it now: to siphon Liberal resources away from Guelph, St. Lambert and Westmount Ville-Marie. The Conservatives are 100% focused on Guelph and I’m sure Harper has no plans to make much of a push for DVW, but I’m just guessing that in Harper’s eyes taking away any Liberal volunteers that would have otherwise been in the other 3 ridings between now and Sept. 8th works to his benefit

It's really simple. If John Godfrey hadn't delayed his resignation for a month, collecting a pay cheque from both the private sector and the taxpayers at the same time, the Don Valley West by-election would be happening at the same time as the other three. The Liberals claimed at the time that they were ready to go and Godfrey's delay had nothing to do with resources, money or the party's readiness. Are we now to believe that this wasn't true?

Two more candidates in Guelph By-Election

Two more candidates have been approved by Elections Canada for the Guelph by-election

Philip Bender - Libertarian "engineer and independent telephone company owner, Philip Bender. This is his first try federally, but Bender previously ran in a nearby provincial by-election against provincial Progressive Conservative party leader John Tory." (Pundit's Guide)

Kornelis Klevering - Marijuana Party, "(Brother) Kornelis "Kees" Klevering of the Assembly of the Church of the Universe, once called a high priest of hemp." (Pundit's Guide)

Nominations close on Monday the 18th of August with the final official list being published on the 21st of August.

H/T Guelph Speak and the Pundit's Guide

Stop the Carbon Tax website

For your viewing pleasure this Saturday morning:

Stop the Carbon Tax

Make sure you take a few minutes to sign the petition while you're there.

H/T PomoChristian

Prime Minister Harper to visit Kitchener next week

I found this on Facebook. I won't be able to go because of a prior commitment (although I'm currently trying to convince the wife that a little re-scheduling wouldn't hurt).

PM Stephen Harper in Kitchener
Come meet the Prime Minister!

Time and PlaceDate:
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Time: 5:30pm - 8:00pm
Location: Romanian Cultural Centre
Street: 2150 Bleams Road
City/Town: Kitchener, ON

View Map

Contact InfoPhone: 519-748-6768
Email: silverwind828@gmail.com

Description
BBQ event with Prime Minister Stephen Harper this Tuesday August 19 at the Romanian Cultural Centre at 2150 Bleams Road in Kitchener.

Doors open at 5 p.m. and tickets are 25$ for adults and 70$ for families. Only pre-registered guests will be admitted. To purchase tickets and register please call 519-745-3100 by Monday, August 18th at 4pm or email Beth Corbett silverwind828@gmail.com before Sunday Aug 17th at 5 PM. Leave a message with your name, phone number, and full address and number of guests. A volunteer will call to confirm your registration

What he said

Alberta Aardvark on John McCallum's visit to Guelph.

Bet on Gloria

Have a little fun with the by-election. You can join Hubdub for free and then bet on who will win the Guelph by-election. Spread the word.

H/T Blue Blogging Soapbox